Statistics Analyses

05-30-2006, 01:04 PM

Hi Karin,

I didn't get a chance to respond in the other thread before the moderator closed it.

I'd like to thank you for taking the time to respond to our posts. Having an opportunity to interact directly with the players is what makes this site great. Even though many of us have yet to meet you personally, we can tell by your posts that you have a great sense of humor. BTW, I hope that I'm not contagious either. ;)

In the earlier thread, you mentioned that you didn't feel that you were hitting the ball very well, but you were still able to hit the ball pretty straight and far off the tee. You mentioned that your GIR% was fairly high too. I just took a look at your stats for this season, and it's no surprise that you're still #1 in driving distance. However, your GIR% isn't just "fairly high". It's very high. You're close to hitting 75% of the greens in regulation. That percentage would put you #1 on the PGA TOUR, and you're right up there with Lorena, who's #1 in this category. The difference between your GIR% and Lorena's is virtually statistically insignificant, so that's something to be proud of considering that Lorena is having arguably the best season of her career and is currently #1 on the money list.

The fact that you are leading the tour in driving distance and that your GIR% is only slightly lower than Lorena's makes it quite intriguing that there could be such a huge difference in your respective earnings. This led me to look at some other key statistics, and I'd like to share my analyses with you and members of this forum. By the way, I hope this post doesn't put you to sleep. But before I go further though, I'd like to apologize for comparing your stats to Lorena's. Since Lorena's currently #1 on the money list, I figured she'd be an interesting basis for comparison, especially since she's one of the longer hitters on tour like you.

Knowing that you and Lorena both hit GIRs in nearly the same frequency, the first area I wanted to look at was putts per GIR. Lorena averages 1.74 putts per GIR while you average 1.83. To a casual observer, this might not seem like much, but if we were to calculate the total GIR putts for a round, they would be:

Lorena: 1.74 putts/GIR * 18 holes * .755 GIR/round = 23.6 GIR putts/round
Karin: 1.83 putts/GIR * 18 holes * .746 GIR/round = 24.57 GIR putts/round

Even this one full stroke difference might not seem huge to some, but it is significant over 4 rounds of a tournament. 4 strokes could mean the difference between winning a tournament and finishing just inside the top 10. As for the reason for this difference in putting between you and Lorena, do you think it's more due to accuracy of your approach shots (and the average distance of your first putts) or do you think it's due to putting itself? You mentioned that you wanted to improve your entire short game from 100 yards and in, including putting. I'm not sure if (because of your length off the tee) most of your approach shots are within 100 yards of the green anyway, but perhaps accuracy of your approach shots in general could help you in this area even if you didn't focus too much on improving your putting.

Another area that I wanted to look at is total putts per round. You averaged 31.3 and Lorena averaged 29.03 for a difference of about 2.3 putts per round. Since we already know that there's about a 1 putt/round difference on GIRs as calculated above, that means that there's a 1.3 putt per round difference on those non-GIR holes. Since both you and Lorena average 75% GIR, that 1.3 putt difference is coming from only 25% of the non-GIR holes (i.e. 4.5 holes/round). Over those 4.5 non-GIR holes, you are averaging around 1.5 putts/hole, whereas Lorena is averaging 1.2 putts/hole. This means that you are getting up and down in one out of every two non-GIR holes, and Lorena is getting up and down in 4 out of every 5 non-GIR holes. Iâ€™m not sure if this is more a reflection of a weakness in your game or an amazing strength in Lorenaâ€™s game, but scrambling appears to be a key area in which thereâ€™s a significant difference between you and Lorena. I would have a hard time believing that this difference is due to putting ability alone. Getting the ball close to the hole has to play a significant role in this difference.

But based on this information alone, one canâ€™t just assume that improving on your chipping or pitching would help improve your scrambling ability. In these scrambling situations we donâ€™t necessarily know if they required a green-side chip due to just missing the green on an approach shot or if they required a full wedge from 120 yards due to an earlier forced-punch out because of a severely errant drive. The numbers themselves donâ€™t really tell us this, so improving on scrambling ability doesnâ€™t necessarily mean focusing on a chipping or pitching. It could mean that driving accuracy is a factor as well.

So far, I've identified about a 2.3 stroke difference between you and Lorena due to putting alone, but I see that in terms of total strokes, Lorena averages almost 3 fewer strokes per round than you do (69.17 strokes/round vs. 72.12 strokes/round). That means there's about a .7 stroke difference unaccounted for. From prior analyses, we know that difference isn't due to putting, and it isn't on holes in which you hit the green in regulation. In other words, on those 4.5 non-GIR holes per round, you are taking .7 more strokes from tee to green than Lorena is. Based on the numbers alone, it would be impossible to tell where the extra .7 stroke difference is coming from, but it accounts for nearly the same difference as the number of putts on those 13.5 GIR holes.

Anyway, I hope I didn't bore you too much. Iâ€™m fascinated by statistics, and I hope my analyses might offer you some insight or confirm things that you already know about your game. Iâ€™d love to hear what you think about these analyses, but if I don't, I'd like to wish you the best of luck in the rest of your rookie season and the rest of your career!

Cheers,
Hosel_Rocket

wiefan · 05-30-2006, 01:47 PM

Hi ya karin....wow!! a FREE statistical analysis for you and your coach to ponder on....and a very very good and interesting analysis at that.....

now Karin, aren't you glad you decided to become a player poster....it is a win-win for everyone....especially US

anyway, I have nothing to add except I hope you have a terriffic season.....let's surprise every one and just win the ROY.....anyway....have a good season....see ya!!

Sjodin · 06-09-2006, 09:36 AM

Hello,

You must have spend quite a bit of time on this... Hope you enjoyed it!

I don't really know what to respond to though. This is my take on my year, statistically speaking:

I haven't hit the ball as well as I would like to. The driver has been OK, but my iron shots don't end up as close to the hole as I'm used to. This leaves longer putts for birdie and therefore more putts during a round.
I believe that my GIR stats are up, since the courses play fairly short for me and I don't have any long clubs in my hands during the approach shots. But as I said, I'd like to hit it closer to the pin. Hitting the green itself isn't really that important if you're on the wrong side of the green...

Well, I'd better get ready for the second round here in Havre de Grace now. Thanks for the info!

/Karin

06-09-2006, 09:45 AM

I think what you're saying about proximity to the hole on approach shots is one of the things that I was kind of alluding to in my first post. This is the kind of thing that only the player can know because the statistics don't show the average distance of a player's first putt. In this sense, you are absolutely correct. The %GIR doesn't mean much, unless, of course, your %GIR is very low. You obviously don't have that problem, so I guess what this means is that you're at least accurate enough to get it on the putting surface but not quite there in terms of giving you great birdie chances. That's definitely a better problem to have than the problem of missing greens.

Thanks for taking the time between rounds to respond. Best of luck for round 2 and hopefully this weekend!

06-09-2006, 09:36 AM	#3
Sjodin LPGA Member Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 43	Hello, You must have spend quite a bit of time on this... Hope you enjoyed it! I don't really know what to respond to though. This is my take on my year, statistically speaking: I haven't hit the ball as well as I would like to. The driver has been OK, but my iron shots don't end up as close to the hole as I'm used to. This leaves longer putts for birdie and therefore more putts during a round. I believe that my GIR stats are up, since the courses play fairly short for me and I don't have any long clubs in my hands during the approach shots. But as I said, I'd like to hit it closer to the pin. Hitting the green itself isn't really that important if you're on the wrong side of the green... Well, I'd better get ready for the second round here in Havre de Grace now. Thanks for the info! /Karin __________________ www.karinsjodin.com

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05-30-2006, 01:04 PM	#1
hosel_rocket Guest Posts: n/a	Statistics Analyses Hi Karin, I didn't get a chance to respond in the other thread before the moderator closed it. I'd like to thank you for taking the time to respond to our posts. Having an opportunity to interact directly with the players is what makes this site great. Even though many of us have yet to meet you personally, we can tell by your posts that you have a great sense of humor. BTW, I hope that I'm not contagious either. ;) In the earlier thread, you mentioned that you didn't feel that you were hitting the ball very well, but you were still able to hit the ball pretty straight and far off the tee. You mentioned that your GIR% was fairly high too. I just took a look at your stats for this season, and it's no surprise that you're still #1 in driving distance. However, your GIR% isn't just "fairly high". It's very high. You're close to hitting 75% of the greens in regulation. That percentage would put you #1 on the PGA TOUR, and you're right up there with Lorena, who's #1 in this category. The difference between your GIR% and Lorena's is virtually statistically insignificant, so that's something to be proud of considering that Lorena is having arguably the best season of her career and is currently #1 on the money list. The fact that you are leading the tour in driving distance and that your GIR% is only slightly lower than Lorena's makes it quite intriguing that there could be such a huge difference in your respective earnings. This led me to look at some other key statistics, and I'd like to share my analyses with you and members of this forum. By the way, I hope this post doesn't put you to sleep. But before I go further though, I'd like to apologize for comparing your stats to Lorena's. Since Lorena's currently #1 on the money list, I figured she'd be an interesting basis for comparison, especially since she's one of the longer hitters on tour like you. Knowing that you and Lorena both hit GIRs in nearly the same frequency, the first area I wanted to look at was putts per GIR. Lorena averages 1.74 putts per GIR while you average 1.83. To a casual observer, this might not seem like much, but if we were to calculate the total GIR putts for a round, they would be: Lorena: 1.74 putts/GIR * 18 holes * .755 GIR/round = 23.6 GIR putts/round Karin: 1.83 putts/GIR * 18 holes * .746 GIR/round = 24.57 GIR putts/round Even this one full stroke difference might not seem huge to some, but it is significant over 4 rounds of a tournament. 4 strokes could mean the difference between winning a tournament and finishing just inside the top 10. As for the reason for this difference in putting between you and Lorena, do you think it's more due to accuracy of your approach shots (and the average distance of your first putts) or do you think it's due to putting itself? You mentioned that you wanted to improve your entire short game from 100 yards and in, including putting. I'm not sure if (because of your length off the tee) most of your approach shots are within 100 yards of the green anyway, but perhaps accuracy of your approach shots in general could help you in this area even if you didn't focus too much on improving your putting. Another area that I wanted to look at is total putts per round. You averaged 31.3 and Lorena averaged 29.03 for a difference of about 2.3 putts per round. Since we already know that there's about a 1 putt/round difference on GIRs as calculated above, that means that there's a 1.3 putt per round difference on those non-GIR holes. Since both you and Lorena average 75% GIR, that 1.3 putt difference is coming from only 25% of the non-GIR holes (i.e. 4.5 holes/round). Over those 4.5 non-GIR holes, you are averaging around 1.5 putts/hole, whereas Lorena is averaging 1.2 putts/hole. This means that you are getting up and down in one out of every two non-GIR holes, and Lorena is getting up and down in 4 out of every 5 non-GIR holes. Iâ€™m not sure if this is more a reflection of a weakness in your game or an amazing strength in Lorenaâ€™s game, but scrambling appears to be a key area in which thereâ€™s a significant difference between you and Lorena. I would have a hard time believing that this difference is due to putting ability alone. Getting the ball close to the hole has to play a significant role in this difference. But based on this information alone, one canâ€™t just assume that improving on your chipping or pitching would help improve your scrambling ability. In these scrambling situations we donâ€™t necessarily know if they required a green-side chip due to just missing the green on an approach shot or if they required a full wedge from 120 yards due to an earlier forced-punch out because of a severely errant drive. The numbers themselves donâ€™t really tell us this, so improving on scrambling ability doesnâ€™t necessarily mean focusing on a chipping or pitching. It could mean that driving accuracy is a factor as well. So far, I've identified about a 2.3 stroke difference between you and Lorena due to putting alone, but I see that in terms of total strokes, Lorena averages almost 3 fewer strokes per round than you do (69.17 strokes/round vs. 72.12 strokes/round). That means there's about a .7 stroke difference unaccounted for. From prior analyses, we know that difference isn't due to putting, and it isn't on holes in which you hit the green in regulation. In other words, on those 4.5 non-GIR holes per round, you are taking .7 more strokes from tee to green than Lorena is. Based on the numbers alone, it would be impossible to tell where the extra .7 stroke difference is coming from, but it accounts for nearly the same difference as the number of putts on those 13.5 GIR holes. Anyway, I hope I didn't bore you too much. Iâ€™m fascinated by statistics, and I hope my analyses might offer you some insight or confirm things that you already know about your game. Iâ€™d love to hear what you think about these analyses, but if I don't, I'd like to wish you the best of luck in the rest of your rookie season and the rest of your career! Cheers, Hosel_Rocket

05-30-2006, 01:47 PM	#2
wiefan Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 4,135	Hi ya karin....wow!! a FREE statistical analysis for you and your coach to ponder on....and a very very good and interesting analysis at that..... now Karin, aren't you glad you decided to become a player poster....it is a win-win for everyone....especially US anyway, I have nothing to add except I hope you have a terriffic season.....let's surprise every one and just win the ROY.....anyway....have a good season....see ya!!

06-09-2006, 09:45 AM	#4
hosel_rocket Guest Posts: n/a	I think what you're saying about proximity to the hole on approach shots is one of the things that I was kind of alluding to in my first post. This is the kind of thing that only the player can know because the statistics don't show the average distance of a player's first putt. In this sense, you are absolutely correct. The %GIR doesn't mean much, unless, of course, your %GIR is very low. You obviously don't have that problem, so I guess what this means is that you're at least accurate enough to get it on the putting surface but not quite there in terms of giving you great birdie chances. That's definitely a better problem to have than the problem of missing greens. Thanks for taking the time between rounds to respond. Best of luck for round 2 and hopefully this weekend!