Korean boom on LPGA has peaked

[Blue]

I presented data for this a year ago. Here is new data, even stronger. Jiyai Shin represents the peak of the Korean boom on the LPGA Tour. She represents the tail end of the generation players who were inspired by the performance of Se Ri Pak in 1998.

After Shin, the Korean presence on the Tour will drop off until there may an echo boom in about 10 years with girls who are now being inspired by Shin. We'll have to see.

Proof:

• With only four tournaments left on the Futures Tour schedule, there has only been one Korean winner this year.
• Of the top 20 players in the ROY race, only three are Korean.
• Of the top 20 players in Q-School last year, only one was Korean.

People seem to accept as gospel the fact that Koreans are going to dominate the LPGA for years to come. The facts do not support this. The LPGA is becoming a global sport. It is also illogical to expect that one relatively small and densely populated country with minimal space for golf would dominate women's professional golf in this global environment.

There does seem to be a growing number of Korean-American players (players with one or more Korean-born parents or grandparents). That's an entirely different thing.

[bangkokbobby]

I would only say this in regards to Durameds, Q-school and the LPGA...a lot of KLPGAers who might have tried to play in the USA were scared away with the contraction of the LPGA schedule...with very good JLPGA purses a lot of the top KLPGAers decided to go to JLPGA Q-school instead...and others were looking to Japan as well...a good example is LPGA Kia winner Hee Kyung Seo...who speaks fluent English...she is the best KLPGAer but had no intention prior to Kia of coming to the US any time soon...she was looking to Japan next year...KLPGAer Sun Ju Ahn did the same...and in fact has won this year in Japan...plus Mi Jeong Jeon...there are a bunch of them...the uncertain LPGA situation made a lot of them think Japan was closer and could provide good money...

...so far this year, 7 of the 18 events have been won by Koreans...by the way, Morgan Pressel also won on the JLPGA this year...

...also...as good as Se Ri was...better in her prime than Ji Yai, in my opinion, she was never the top ranked player over Annika...Ji Yai, who has been and is currently ranked number one, is inspiring a new generation that could be coming in a few years if the LPGA schedule issue improves...

...what you will probably see are Korean-Americans coming through the ranks as you say...but I disagree that it's entirely different...the reason being the Korean parents pushing them...and some who were born in the States were actually raised in Korea...on the Futures Tour there has been only one Korean winner, but six Korean-Americans have won...

Christine Song is a two time winner and is Korean-American
Korean Beacon|Tag Archive|Christine Song

Angela Oh has one win...
Angela Oh Bio

Tiffany Joh, a first time winner, is Kore-Am too...
Tiffany Joh Wins on the Duramed Futures Tour|Korean Beacon

They list tournament winner Jenny Shin as Torrance, Calif...but she was born in Seoul, Korea...
Jenny Shin Bio

Tournament winner Jennifer Song is listed as Ann Arbor, Michigan...and she was born in Ann Arbor but she was raised in South Korea and holds dual citizenship...
Jennifer Song - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There are also two other Korean-Americans who are in the top 11, Esther Choe and Hannah Jun...

...now you might say...yeah, but they are American...that's true...but you can bet their Korean parents are just like any Korean parents raising their kids in Korea...pushing them to practice, practice, practice, practice, practice...

[bangkokbobby]

What I'm saying on the Korean-American thing is just because they were born here, don't underestimate the cultural conditioning of having Korean parents pushing, pushing, pushing...they think they're doing it for the good of their children...that's an open discusssion...and the inspiration they get from seeing Korean-born players win...

...also, when you see an American city next to their name...that's not always the whole story...that might just be where they are now...

[dangerbob]

Originally Posted by bangkokbobby

What I'm saying on the Korean-American thing is just because they were born here, don't underestimate the cultural conditioning of having Korean parents pushing, pushing, pushing...they think they're doing it for the good of their children...that's an open discusssion...and the inspiration they get from seeing Korean-born players win...

...also, when you see an American city next to their name...that's not always the whole story...that might just be where they are now...

Like BJ said, "The only American in Michelle Wie is her passport!"

[Blue]

Originally Posted by bangkokbobby

I would only say this in regards to Durameds, Q-school and the LPGA...a lot of KLPGAers who might have tried to play in the USA were scared away with the contraction of the LPGA schedule...with very good JLPGA purses a lot of the top KLPGAers decided to go to JLPGA Q-school instead...and others were looking to Japan as well...a good example is LPGA Kia winner Hee Kyung Seo...who speaks fluent English...she is the best KLPGAer but had no intention prior to Kia of coming to the US any time soon...she was looking to Japan next year...KLPGAer Sun Ju Ahn did the same...and in fact has won this year in Japan...plus Mi Jeong Jeon...there are a bunch of them...the uncertain LPGA situation made a lot of them think Japan was closer and could provide good money...

...so far this year, 7 of the 18 events have been won by Koreans...by the way, Morgan Pressel also won on the JLPGA this year...

I'm not talking about who is wining on the LPGA this year. I'm talking about in 2-5 years. The generation of Korean LPGA players now in the early 20s, what I call the Jiyai Shin generation, represent the peak of the Korean boom, in my opinion. They were inspired to come to America and play on the LPGA by Se Ri Pak. All evidence points to the fact that the numbers are dwindling after that. They may still play in Korea or Japan, as you point out, but the numbers of players on the LPGA from Korea will drop off. They are not in the development queue in the large numbers people assume they are.

Originally Posted by bangkokbobby

...what you will probably see are Korean-Americans coming through the ranks as you say...but I disagree that it's entirely different...the reason being the Korean parents pushing them...and some who were born in the States were actually raised in Korea...on the Futures Tour there has been only one Korean winner, but six Korean-Americans have won...

...now you might say...yeah, but they are American...that's true...but you can bet their Korean parents are just like any Korean parents raising their kids in Korea...pushing them to practice, practice, practice, practice, practice...

Sorry, I edited out your big list of all the Korean-Americans who have won on the Futures. I am familiar with the list. It was looking at this list that got me thinking again about the change in women's pro golf. The reason I said Korean Americans are different than Koreans is because from the American fan's perspective, they are Americans. Americans see Michelle Wie or Christina Kim or Vicky Hurst and think "American." They don't think "Korean" or "Asian" the way they do when they see Na Yeon Choi or Jiyai Shin or Song-Hee Kim. They can play on the Solheim Cup. They can compete for the USA in the 2016 Olympics. No one questions whether they speak English.

I wasn't really thinking about the practice, practice, practice values of their parents. I get what you're saying about that, but it's not really visible to most fans. I think some American parents may also have those values. And I think some of the Korean-American players have behavior and values that you would never see in Korean players. I'm thinking about Christina Kim here, or Tiffany Joh.

Most importantly, a lot of fans -- probably most fans -- care about nationality. They like to root for the home team. They care whether an American wins at tournaments that take place in the US and most tournaments still take place in the US and the Tour is based in the US.

I'm also predicting the next big boom country on Tour will be South Africa and Spain. There are a lot of untapped markets for women's golf -- areas where golf playing opportunties have been plentiful for men, but where women have traditionally not played. The goal of the Olympics will bring a whole new incentive for young girls to compete in golf. Spain already has some new hot (in more ways than one) role models in Bea Recari and Asahara Munoz. South Africa doesn't have anyone really prominent yet, but it should only be a matter of time.

[bangkokbobby]

They are in the queue at younger ages...as you see...they let 12 year olds play on the KLPGA...they just may or may not come here...

...there are a lot of great players on the KLPGA younger than Ji Yai Shin...they just keep coming and coming...just for the moment, they are not coming to the States because the LPGA is in flux...

...remember...how many people knew who Ji Yai Shin really was...how good she really was...until she won the British...if they didn't follow the KLPGA closely...same for Na Yeon Choi...and others...honestly, how many people on this board knew how good Ji Yai Shin was four years ago? How many even knew who Ji Yai or Na Yeon even were four years ago...maybe a few...I doubt it's a majority...there are a bunch of young guns coming up in Korea now making their mark...I would recommend this blog article from HappyFan:

The KLPGA Mid-Season Review SeoulSisters

...particularly of interest some young amateurs making a mark on the KLPGA as young as 14...those could be future world stars, just as Ji Yai, Song Hee, Na Yeon and others were young guns 4 or 5 years ago...

...I'll ask...how many people on this board know who Ha Na Jang or Hyo Ju Kim or many of the young players are...and more are coming...don't assume that because they didn't make their mark at this year's Q-school or Durameds that in 2 or 3 years they couldn't be the new Ji Yai or Na Yeon or In Kyung...

...I wouldn't call off the Korean wave just yet...I don't think it will take 10 years for the Shin generation to come...they just haven't come the last two years because they see the LPGA schedule as shaky...it's a big risk for them to come here...I would not be surprised next year or the year after...once Whan has a solid schedule back in place to see the Koreans start to come again...

...but also the money in Asia...particularly Japan...is getting better...there is less incentive for them to come at the moment...

...ladies golf in Korea is HUGE...it's not like there is a Se Ri generation and then a big gap until the Shin generation...they are loaded on the KLPGA and JLPGA...the lull you are referring to has more to do with the LPGA situation...

[bangkokbobby]

A few young guns...

Soo Jin Yang...




Eun Joo Lee...


We're coming! (well...maybe...)

[bangkokbobby]

...and let me add...the Koreans in the ROY race this year...they're good players but I can name just off the top of my head 10 young players on the KLPGA better than the Korean rookies currently on the LPGA...they just aren't risking coming here right now...some others are too young...

[bangkokbobby]

...actually, now that I think about it...even after Ji Yai won the British, Mizuno and the ADT as a non-member, there were golf fans and pundits picking Wie, Stacy Lewis and Vicky Hurst as ROY front runner going into 2009...I get that they are all American...but come on, Shin won three times before her rookie year...I don't care if Wie, Lewis and Hurst are all your next door neighbors...how could anybody pick any of those three over Shin? I get the whole "she wasn't really a rookie" argument...but I'm talking about people who weren't using that argument...besides, Wie played more on the LPGA than Shin before her official rookie year too...she just didn't win...even if she had, 2009 would still have been Wiesy's rookie year...

...actually Shin had planned on playing in Japan last year before she won automatic exemption...imagine if she had not come...a Korean would not have won ROY last year...that would have been more evidence that the Korean wave had peaked...but really the best Korean would have been playing in Japan and Korea...

...many of the best are playing there now...

...not to get off topic...but I found the poll in this forum about 2009 ROY predictions...

Who will be 2009 LPGA Rookie of the Year?

...you know...don't kill me for this...but Ji Yai won three events in 2008 including a Major...I understand she finished second in the poll, but with 29% of the vote? THREE tournaments in 2008...a MAJOR! The million dollar ADT! She should have won 80% of the vote minimum! I love Michelle Wie, too...but how did she win that poll? Can you imagine how lopsided the poll would have been if Wie had won the British, Mizuno and ADT as a non-member going into 2009?

...well...sorry to go off on a tangent...I just thought 2009 was the easiet ROY prediction ever...and the race was over midway through the year...

[bangkokbobby]

Last thing I'll say about ROY for 2009 and get back on subject...but here were my personal odds I posted before the season began...

Seoul Sisters Golf // View topic - If I Were A Betting Man...

I considered Shin such an overwhelming favorite I posted "no odds" for her as ROY...

"oddly" enough...neither I nor anybody in the poll here mentioned Anna Nordqvist...runner up to Shin in ROY...